Our industry is heavily dependent on statistics. From show attendances, inventory and margins to displacements, performance calibrations and registrations - we float in a sea of statistical dependency.
But, to channel American author Mark Twain (who credited 19th century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli for the “Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics” quote), for sure not all statistics are of equal validity.
In this era of so-called “fake news”, the famous (infamous?) epithet still highlights how statistics can be bent, shaped and moulded to support any argument, any agenda, any interpretation of any (apparent) facts some 150 years after it was first coined.
In the case of our current market, there are two statistical issues that are vexing those who seek clarity - visitor statistics at the market’s two major industry shows (INTERMOT and EICMA) and the true new motorcycle sales trend that appears to be hidden underneath the Euro 3/Euro 4 transition impacted registration data for 2016, 2017 and, increasingly apparently, for 2018.
In the past three or four years there has been much debate about the comparative merits and demerits of INTERMOT and EICMA - much of it revolving around the attendance numbers and how even the OE manufacturers, including those with an effective ownership stake in INTERMOT, appear to be voting with their own feet by staging ever more new model launches at Milan rather than Cologne, even in the even numbered INTERMOT years.
‘the problem is interpretation and context’
Well, that has way more to do with the exhibit discounts that EICMA is “persuading” the manufacturers with (to launch at EICMA and specifically NOT do so at INTERMOT) than the attendance numbers, because they understand the reality of the attendance number claims (they see the real figures) and “get it” where the comparative value per visitor comparison between the shows is concerned.
EICMA persists in making unsubstantiated visitor number claims. Again, after this year’s show, their press release talks about percentage increases without actually naming a number - I think it is some years since ANCMA, the trade association that owns EICMA, have cited an actual hard figure - which makes one think they are trying to roll back on the notoriously inflated claims being made as the motorcycle market endured the “dark decade” following the 2007 financial crisis.
Conversely, however, Koelnmesse, which stages INTERMOT, is a member of a domestic German expo centre trade association that insists that all member expo numbers are independently audited - so although they are always citing an apparently lower figure than EICMA, we know it is a true number at some 220,000. INTERMOT 2018 matched the 2016 record number the show has attracted since moving from Munich.
Then there is the issue of how many EICMA visitors are of riding age, and what kind of mileage and ownership profile (and therefore aftermarket value) they actually have.
At both INTERMOT and EICMA I spent 30 minutes sat in the central ‘causeway’ watching the visitors (in both cases on the Thursday - a public day), and the contrast couldn’t have been starker. At INTERMOT the vast majority were clearly riders - you could tell by what they were wearing or carrying. At EICMA? Not so much.
Honestly, in 30 minutes I didn’t see one single person wearing or carrying riding gear, not one. Those who looked like they might ride (at best between a quarter and a third of the traffic watched) were in the minority and were clearly low mileage, mostly urban scooter riders.
Sure, an important and growing sector, but not riders who underpin the industry balance sheet with the kind of mileage and spending needed to sustain the investments that multiple ‘big ticket’ shows like INTERMOT, EICMA and others suck from budgets.
Meanwhile, what of the registration statistics? Well, this month we lead with the latest quarterly statistics from ACEM on the front cover and have some three pages of statistical reports from 10 different countries on three continents.
Not for one minute is there a suggestion that the figures themselves are in any sense dubious, in strict terms they are not. They are accurate and, for what they are, entirely reliable and coming from impeccable sources and compiled diligently by hard working people whose job is simply to “do the math” - and for that everyone should be grateful. It isn’t easy work and does take a certain talent and mindset.
No, the problem lies with the interpretation and context - and again, this is really nobody’s fault as such, but as I said in the last edition, I think it behoves everybody just to be aware that all may not entirely be as it seems.
I met a few people at the shows who had read my October Comment and thought that it made sense, and in fact made particular sense in the context of the “real world” feeling they had for just how well the market is really doing at present.
The issue isn’t with the headline figure. Selling (or rather, registering) 830,694 in total motorcycles in the nine months to September is a perfectly good number, especially in the context of the 2013 nadir.
It is the 2017 comparison of +8.2 percent that is likely to be misleading a lot of people in the aftermarket (the trade association and OEM professionals ‘get it’) into thinking that growth is flowing like milk and honey again. It isn’t!
As we here at IDN have pointed out on multiple occasions this year (and will do so again next year when the final 2018 numbers are available), it is the “official” 2017 figure that is tainting the comparison.
The 50,000 to 80,000 “units” that were pre-registered in 2016 (especially in the final quarter) in advance of the Euro 4 compliance deadline at the end of that year were (mostly) sold by dealers in the early months of 2017, even at some often quite deep discounts, favourable terms and with generous accessory and G&A bundles as incentives.
After the return to growth seen in the second half of 2014, the market has had two very good years in 2015 and 2016, but then the registrations picture had started to level off by this time last year and has continued to plateau in 2018.
