ACEM registration statistics put 2018 EU motorcycles at 1,004,063 units for +9.89 growth over 2017 - in theory!The Brussels based international motorcycle industry trade association ACEM (Association des Constructeurs Européens de Motocycles) has released new Powered Two-Wheeler and Quadricycle registration data for European Union markets in 2018 that puts total internal combustion engine (ICE) motorcycle sales at 1,004,063 units - an increase of 9.89% / 90,340 units over 2017.
Italy is reported as the largest market in 2018, with 219,694 new motorcycle registrations (+7.39%/15,115 units), with France second at 177,460 new motorcycles (+9.00%/14,652 units), and the largest growth in volume terms being seen in Spain, where new motorcycle registrations were +17.45% (+23,766 units) at 159,946 new motorcycles for the year.
Germany, the fourth largest EU market, reported 156,108 new registrations (+10.98%/15,441 units) and the UK fifth at 100,439 new registrations (+2.79%/2,726 units). Europe’s ‘Big Five’ markets represented 81% of the European total at 813,647 new motorcycle registrations for the year.
Because the period covers the years where official registration statistics were distorted by the crossover pre-registration and subsequent sale of Euro 3 inventory, before the Euro 4 regulations took effect at the start of 2017, the five years since the market bottomed out at 748,529 units in 2013 show a reliable +34.14% growth measure (255,534 new registrations).
‘or was it +3.12%?’
However, the effects of the Euro 3/Euro 4 crossover mean that the registration statistics for the final quarter of 2016 were artificially high and artificially low for the first half of 2017 as pre-registered inventory continued to be sold by dealers as “Pre-Owned” units that don’t appear in the Q1 and Q2 2017 registration figures when the retail sale was actually made.
Adjusted for those quarters, the trend data for 2018 over 2017 looks very different. IDN has estimated that between 50,000 and 65,000 of the sales made in 2017 really appeared in the 2016 registration statistics, making a true picture for 2017 look very different.
In all probability, the 13.27% growth rate recorded for 2016 was overstated by between 50,000 and 65,000 machines and that a better 2016 market estimate would be in the region of 949,678 units sold (rather than the 1m or more seen in the 2016 statistics) for a ‘real’ growth rate of around +6.5%.
The knock-on effect means that the 2017 figure on which last year’s apparent growth of nearly 10% is based was understated with an additional 50,000 to 65,000 new motorcycles not appearing. A more realistic market performance for 2017 would be in the region of +2.53% growth at around 973,723 new units ‘sold’ (as opposed to registered) instead of the 913,723 that ACEM’s statistics had to report.
Similarly, a safer ‘guesstimate’ would be that, in fact, 2018 ‘only’ saw growth over 2017 of some 30,340 genuinely additional ‘new’ unit sales [IDN # 141] for around +3.12% growth.
This means that rather than +13.27% growth in 2016 being followed by a -9.50% decline in 2017 and +9.89% growth in 2018, a more reliable picture shows that since the market bottomed out in 2013, growth of +7.29% in 2014 and +10.99% in 2015 has slowed to +6.54% growth in 2016, followed by +2.53% in 2017 and +3.12% for 2018.
The question being put by many market observers and analysts is whether or not the market is, in fact, stalling? The growth curve is certainly flattening out.
The 2018 ACEM registration statistics also reflect the ongoing softening of Europe’s moped market and have shown the consequences of the one year later Euro 3 to Euro 4 crossover that took place at the end of 2017 and first months of 2018.
Total moped registrations for EU markets in 2018 are recorded as 273,645 units, down by -31.49% (-125,775 units). France is the largest market for mopeds, with 72,940 new machines registered (-32.04%/-34.382 units), followed by the Netherlands at 58,969 units (-32.08%/-27,857 units) and Germany a distant third at 25,634 (-22.91%/-7,620 units).
Belgium is the fourth largest new moped market (21,391 units), followed by Italy (21,326 units), Poland (16,410 units), Spain (16,073 units) and Austria (11,866 units); all were down (-44.62% in the case of Poland, at 13,223 units).
Total PTW registrations in EU markets are put at 1,277,708 units (-2.70%) for 2018, meaning the overall two-wheeler market has grown by +13.23% percent in the five years since the 2013 low of 1,128,396 total units.
In NEV (New Energy Vehicle) PTW terms (E-Bikes etc), Europe was worth 47,179 new registrations in 2018, up by +16,029 units (+51.46%) after seeing growth of 16,312 units in 2017 (+109.93%) from the 14,838 registrations recorded in 2016. The market for NEVs has grown from just 6,960 units in 2013.
