IT is rare for being wrong to be a good thing, and rarer still for anything in life to be a surprise anymore, especially not in a "good way".
However, the latest new motorcycle registration data released by ACEM, the Brussels based motorcycle industry trade association, appears to show the recovery in new registrations in EU members to be "robust".
Of course the headline news is an average of national data that conceals big variations in individual European markets; even among the "big five" there is a big difference between what is happening in the UK and Spain (in particular) and Germany, where the 12 month cycle has had downs as well as ups, Italy where stability is still fragile, and France, especially, with a market only just now starting to edge towards the bottom of its own very broad PTW sales cycle U-curve.
'middleweights have been the Cinderella of the market'
Indeed, even within national markets, there are wide variations between sectors of the market and between regions.
In general though the trend data is positive in two key respects.
First of all in terms of the headline numbers. Overall, and as reported on the front page of this edition of International Dealer News, market growth does now appear to be solid, and it shows pretty decent numbers; mid single digit growth is a "good thing" in that it generally isn't to be confused with the stability that is characterised by low single digit growth, and is sustainable in a way that double digit growth generally isn't.
Second, while there is still softness in the lower displacement sectors of the market, sectors that, arguably, can point to demographic issues in terms of youth entry, the strongest growth is taking place in parts of the market that are financially more important to Europe's hard-pressed dealers, and more important to Europe's aftermarket parts, accessory, apparel and service-item vendors - the larger displacement markets and, especially, among the middleweights and ever increasingly important adventure tourer sector.
Middleweights have been somewhat of a "Cinderella" sector for years, and growth there is to be welcomed as they represent units that are more likely to be daily riders, and more likely to be a parts and accessory spend opportunity for dealers.
The growth in "naked" style middleweights (kudos to Yamaha) and adventure tourers means the mid single digit growth we are seeing in Europe will punch above its weight in aftermarket, apparel and accessory terms; it will also result in increases in the number of miles being ridden (as is already being seen in some markets despite the theoretically much lower bike parc), which in turn goes to unit growth, and participant stability is good news for workshop bookings and service item consumption.
Regular readers will know that, personally, I have remained rather sceptical, cynical even, about the prospects for any real evidence of real growth emerging for another couple of years at least. My thesis has been that there still have been too many macro- economic uncertainties and too little consumer confidence as a result for any anticipation of what ACEM’s half-year data represents to be realistic.
However, ACEM’s methodology is sound, and the diligence with which their figures are compiled (some weeks after the first releases of major market data by the national trade associations) makes their analysis "considered" worth taking notice of.
It was ACEM for example who, as long ago as the autumn of 2012, started pointing to signs of an impending slow-down in market decline and a cycle that would see stability established in 2013 and 2014, following which market conditions could well permit modest growth to evolve into something slightly more meaningful.
Well, it turns out that ACEM's prognosis was spot-on and that, for once, the scepticism of those, like me, who have still been unsure about market prospects for the past 12 months, has been misplaced.
It may well be that we are all in for a pleasant surprise, and if we are, well, I'll take this kind of surprise "all day long"!
