Following a better than expected visit to EICMA in November, which itself followed a very disappointing trip to INTERMOT in October, the process of putting together this edition of IDN has been, well, "interesting" to say the least.
For me, one of the primary ways to analyse the health of any market, but not least our international motorcycle market, has been to witness the ebb and flow of expo exhibitor attendance and their status fortunes as represented by the changes in the vendor lists at such shows.
Another litmus has always been to weigh the generally prodigious output of the market's R&D departments in terms of new product ideas and new business opportunities for dealers.
This year, the two most striking trends have been the surprisingly high number of exhibitor absentees at both shows - INTERMOT especially - but there were also some 40 or more of what I would call 'staples' absent from the EICMA exhibitor footprint.
The collapse in the exhibitor community at INTERMOT really didn't come as a surprise. Indeed, a major part of my motivation for attending the show was the prospect of witnessing it for myself rather than relying on third party reports.
With the benefit of a few weeks of hindsight since INTERMOT, and with having EICMA 2022 in the rear view mirror now too, I do think the speculation that this might well have been the last INTERMOT at Cologne is overstated and, for sure, unhelpful.
"no tsunami of new P&A yet"
I have to plead guilty that I too found myself figuring that there was no way back for the once mighty north European showcase, and I am embarrassed by that because the simple fact is that, regardless of what it takes, we do all need to do everything we can to ensure that INTERMOT does return to greater strength than the enforced four-year gap reduced it to.
The plain fact is that the buying power value of German and northern European riders is huge compared to that of the scooter dominated greater Milan and southern European riding community. That alone is a compelling and essential argument in favour of ensuring that INTERMOT continues in some shape or form, regardless of what the comparative new motorcycle registration numbers may presently be appearing to suggest.
What shocked me most at INTERMOT was the ill-informed conjecture, negativity and downright apathy I encountered among many members of the domestic German exhibitor community, including many so-called 'majors', and even including some who are German motorcycle industry trade association members.
I came away from INTERMOT wondering if, how and when some kind of spark of momentum will quick-start the German furnace again - both in terms of positivity to try to make every sale (the 'booth apathy' really was awful to behold) and in terms of new product development.
The contrast with EICMA couldn't have been starker. In Italy the furnace of 'Made-in-Italy' momentum is burning brightly and the great white heat of R&D is alive and well. Even the exhibitor absences were an interesting story, in and of themselves.
Some traditional EICMA stalwarts (mostly Italian brands, but some others too, and especially from among the traditionally powerful and market leading Italian gear and apparel sector) appear to be relaxed about disappearing off the industry's international radar. But for every 2019/2021 exhibitor who also skipped EICMA in 2022, there was another who decided to come back this year.
I think many of those who decided to miss 2022, on the basis of their 2021 experience being a less than stellar expo experience, will be back in 2023. They are the ones who will now recognise that the 2021 reboot has been effective in terms of setting EICMA back on an upward trend. They are the ones who, belatedly, will be recognising that EICMA has now got momentum again.
Equally, for all the absences there appears to be at least one or two other newbies - start-ups in the electric motorcycle and scooter 'space' and other tech-led vendors mostly - whose R&D investments made being at EICMA 2022 a 'no brainer'.
There is not yet a tsunami of 'new' in P&A and performance terms, but compared to 2021, that too has momentum despite the supply chain problems. MOMENTUM. The Italian vendor community is turning its focus on export opportunities. Contrary to whatever we outsiders may think we are hearing about the status of Italian capitalism and businesses at this time, the lights are on in Italy in a way in which I just don't see in Germany.
As an economic powerhouse driving exports and capital reserves, the 'Mittelstand' appears to have stalled.
In Italy, however, after EICMA's post-Covid comeback last year, I remember writing about the extraordinary explosion in the number of electric PTW projects that were there. They appeared to have come up like mushrooms overnight in the 24-month pause between EICMA 2019 and 2021.
I remember talking too about how many of them may only last a show, or two or three, but then disappear back into the forest floor from where they came as under-capitalisation and market over-supply rained on their parade.
I wrote too about how, in fast moving tech environments, there are always more casualties than there are 'Alpha Births' - my reference was the first stage of the digital and internet revolution circa 1997 through 2001.
I specifically pointed to the distributive advantage of the established ICE OEMs to disrupt the disruptors once they got their acts together.
Well, they are starting to do that now, starting to get their acts together, and although the "lens of now" might make the aims and intentions of the likes of Honda, Yamaha, Kawasaki, BMW, Triumph and KTM still appear a tad gauche (to say nothing of the likes of LiveWire/H-D, MV Agusta and Ducati), their critical mass in dealer network and balance sheet terms are going to crush many a start-up.
With 'Big Red' announcing ten electric motorcycles and scooters ready for various showroom floors in the next 36 months, nobody should bet against the traditional OEMs at this stage.
Equally, with Chinese volume production abilities and cost profiles also driving the sails of the EV space, only those European start-ups and would-be disruptors with genuinely unique and distinctive propositions will achieve escape velocity but, mentioning no names, we are now starting to see that select cohort emerge at EICMA.
