Last month I wrote about what appeared to be a softening of new motorcycle registrations in the second quarter of 2019 (ICE/Internal Combustion Engine only) based on the release by ACEM (the Brussels based international motorcycle industry trade association) of their data for the first six months of 2019.
At the time of press, we were still some weeks away from seeing ACEM's data for the first nine months of 2019, the first three quarters (it will probably have been released by the time of EICMA), but the selection of national trade association data we are presenting in our StatZone section this month (pages 6 - 8) appears to confirm a continued softening of demand, despite the very good start we saw to 2019 in the first quarter.
Most of the StatZone data is for the period January to September (some is for the period to August), and with the Big Five (France, Italy, Germany, Spain and the UK) representing over 80% of the European total of PTW registrations, and the first six months of each year representing over half of annual registrations, the latest data does confirm that the early season forecasts made by many market analysts in response to quarter one statistics do indeed now look over-optimistic.
"work in progress"
In the case of IDN, and based on a more realistic analysis of market performance in 2016, 2017 and 2018 (+6.5%, +2.53% and +3.12% respectively), I was forecasting that, in fact, 2019 looked more likely to achieve around the +3% mark (give or take anything up to 2% either way) at best and that nobody should be fooled by what had been going on behind the official statistics, especially as a result of the 2016/2017 Euro 4 transition impacts.
The official ACEM data for 2018 points towards +9.89% growth; the official data for the first six months of 2019 pointed towards market growth of +8.67%. Neither is wrong as such, in terms of compilation of available data, but both are a false positive where underlying trends are concerned.
My calculations had suggested that regardless of the Euro 3/Euro 4 issues, and in which year certain units did or did not get registered, the Euro 3/Euro 4 issue was still casting a long shadow where trying to calculate reliable trend data was concerned.
My view is that all we could really rely upon for the period 2013 through 2018 was the simple fact that the market had recovered in the five years since its 2013 nadir by some +34.13 percent - 255,534 additional new units sold in the 52 months to December 2018 since growth appeared to start to return in the second half of 2013.
There is no question now that new motorcycle registrations have NOT maintained the apparent outstanding and contra-trend start to 2019 (quarter one data) and that the quarter two softening has continued in quarter three.
That is not to say that the market is in trouble as such, because at something in the region of +3% growth (+/-2%) we have a sustainable and stable market, and one that in the years leading up to 2014 we'd have happily embraced.
Given the macro-economic picture of declining global demand for consumer goods of all kinds, declining consumer confidence and increasing demographic impacts in terms of the boomers aging out and the Millennials and Centennials bringing a much more environmentally conscious and activist mindset to consumption, then hallelujah, under the circumstances, +3% is the new +10% where motorcycle market growth is concerned for this year!
Plus, it is consistent in a way that anything higher would not be. It appears to suggest a stable market - one that is growing steadily and consistently. That may not be sexy, but it certainly is a massively better sunlit upland than the valley of despair we plunged into from 2008 to 2013. To follow five years in which the market lost in the region of 500,000 registrations with five years in which it will have added some 250,000 to 300,000 unit sales by the end of 2019, and to have done so in the face of the issues we are currently faced with, is a huge achievement.
Far from suggesting that the hard work done by the manufacturers and trade associations to promote riding and develop forward facing platforms that come closer to meeting the ownership and experiential expectations of 'New Gen' consumers, the achievement speaks well to what the industry has achieved, speaks well to its response and speaks well of the prospects for being able to sustain sustainable if modest growth in the face of a range of issues that could be said to be stacked against us.
Look at it like this - do not compare where we are now and what the 2019 market might look like at the end of this year with what we had before, think about what it might look like now if the trade associations, manufacturers and their dealers had NOT started to take the initiatives they have. The great unknown is where we would be in 2019 had we NOT started to adapt and evolve, had we not started to address safety and had we not further enhanced PTW credentials as a transport solution and leisure option of choice.
Twenty years ago, motorcycles, and those who ride them, were widely regarded as being part of the problem and being a social menace. Now they are part of the solution and increasingly being seen as a socially and environmentally responsible expression of good citizenship. The motorcycle industry remains a 'work in progress', but at least there has been progress.
