Well, 2022 is over and the results are in, and the verdict? Flat is "the new black"!
A flat market of +0.1% in a year that saw ripples of pandemic, continued supply chain issues, consumer and producer price inflation and, let me think, I'm sure there was something else, oh yes, Europe descending into war on its borders as The Russian Bear's historic DNA yet again turned against freedom and democracy.
As Ukraine became a pawn in the proto-superpower's attempts to prove that it breathes the same air as USA and China, then so too western economies became pawns, held hostage by challenges, uncertainties and fear in every direction you looked.
For our humble little backwater of global capitalism to emerge without being driven into the abyss by the noise is testament to just how profound the counterintuitive 2020 pandemic reaction really was for the motorcycle, urban mobility and powersports industry.
Back then, the USA saw everyone heading for the hills and deserts as off-road sales steepled, including (at long last) ADV (aka 'dual sport') unit sales. In Europe, 21st century urban mobility finally started to trend towards escape velocity, and in Asia and elsewhere, PTW sales, including e-bikes and e-scooters, continue their inexorable climb towards ubiquity.
Pretty much all the OEMS, from Polaris (Indian Motorcycle) and H-D in the United States, to the 'Big Four' in Japan and the 'Big Five' in Europe, at worst did okay-ish - though most, especially the European manufacturers, in fact all the 'Big Five', had record years in revenue and unit sales terms.
the PTW industry could be headed for a Golden Era
In Europe, one way or another, BMW, Triumph, PIERER Mobility (KTM, Husqvarna and GasGas), Ducati and the Piaggio Group all had record years - most of them in both volume and value terms.
Even the likes of Rieju and Energica had their best years, so it isn't only the budget-rich, capital- blessed corporates who are benefiting from what can now safely be regarded as a widespread public appreciation of the multiple benefits of PTWs as transport and leisure solutions.
Even Suzuki, who has had a torrid time of it in recent years, is back on the path of righteousness. At press time that was the only one of the Japanese manufacturers to have reported, but from what one hears and reads between the lines, there is no reason to suggest that Honda, Yamaha and Kawasaki will have had decent years too.
Meanwhile, of course, the process of increased Chinese market penetration continues apace in legacy, own brand and badged unit third party production terms.
Among the Chinese manufacturer news in this edition, 'bubbling under' awaiting a landing slot, the Moto Morini programme looks to be gathering convincing momentum; MBP, another new name for us in the West, looks set to try pulling up some trees here in Europe; the Benelli 400RR is expected soon, as is another addition to Brixton's 500 cc Crossfire line-up (a Café Racer); a new KTM LC8c parallel twin by its partner CFMoto appears to be nearing production readiness, and Chinese displacement creep continues to show that there is no room for complacency among European manufacturers.
The Indian manufacturers continue to prosper too. Bajaj is making a significant contribution to KTM's success globally; Eicher Motors' Royal Enfield brand is now becoming a fixture in the upper altitudes of the market share and best-selling model tables; TVS Motor Company remains 'ballsy' about what it thinks it can achieve with Norton, and Mahindra & Mahindra has sold a controlling interest in its previously wholly owned Peugeot Motocycles unit - no doubt in favour of what it sees as the greater potential of its BSA subsidiary.
Other news that got my attention were some of the new electrics that were unveiled at the Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show in January.
Not least the latest iteration of Finland's Verge TS line, the Ultra. It looks like I am only just catching up on this brand's tech, but rim-mounted electric motor on a hubless rear wheel? No transmission or many of the other energy parasitic systems? Seriously?
Then there is Davinci, Cake, RGNT Stark, and so many others.
I have maintained for several years that the PTW industry could be headed for a Golden Era in the second half of the 21st century, one that will throw all other such eras into the shade.
I think I am going to take out a bet, that by the end of the century many more millions of people will be doing many more millions of miles on many more millions of two-wheelers, of all kinds, than ever before. Place the bet at outrageous odds and then bequeath it to my nearest and dearest - then let it be passed down the generations.
The only trouble is that the betting business I place it with, will probably not exist by then, and even if it did, the winnings might buy a coffee and a croissant at best.
However, I'm sure that will be the case, and the knock-on effect for PTW retailers and the vendors they buy from will be huge, regardless of how the items sold morph.
Another bit of news that got my attention the past two months is that Harley now has the Chinese made bikes that it has been planning for three or four years. At this stage, CEO Jochen "Mr. Puma" Zeitz (yes, in addition to British stalwart Triumph having actually been founded by two Germans, H-D is now run by a German) says that they will only be used for the dealer-based Training Academy programme in the United States and not for retail sale in the USA … yeah, right - we'll see!
Finally, and talking of Harley, look at SWM's 'new' C1200 elsewhere in this edition. It is an almost exact replica of Harley's now retired 1200 cc Evo Sportster.
This is a legal 'clone' though because the Harley design is out of copyright and patent. Harley dropped the Sportster in Europe three years ago because it couldn't retro engineer it to be Euro 5 compliant, then ended production altogether 18 months ago. Instead, Harley came out with a new interpretation of the iconic Sportster on an entirely new engine platform.
Harley and many other manufacturers have extensive design back catalogues, featuring many once hugely popular but now 'retro' designs. Is this the start of an altogether new approach to meeting consumer's 'retro' tastes and the start of a major "old/new" or "new/old" industry segment?
