Italy - registrations to July -15.03%
Though continuing to stabilise, the latest data from ANCMA, the motorcycle industry trade association for Italy, show new motorcycle registrations continuing to (theoretically) decline, being down for the first seven months by -13.56% (97,983 units YTD).
However, as is the case in most other European markets (especially Germany, but except for Spain) the data remains hopelessly distorted by the Q4, 2024 rush by the primary OEMs to pre-register unsold Euro 5 spec models before the upgraded Euro 5+ regulations can into force on 1st January this year.
The result? In statistical terms a confused and confusing picture. However, the underlying data for Italy doesn't appear as bad as it might appear. July was the 'lowest decline' of the year so far, at -5.20% (16,050 units) having been -13.36% in May and -6.72% in June.
As elsewhere, this data does not take account of the 'pre-reg' units that, though heavily promoted, dealerships will have made some progress in clearing by now, meaning that some of the late 2024 'pre-reg' units have been valuable additional sales for 2025.
In that context, our analysis suggests that around half of the 37,000 registrations seen in Italy Q4, 2024 were 'legitimate sales' and that would mean that in the worst case scenario the Italian market H2 carry-over has been something like a 5,000 to 8,000 pre-registrations, some of which will be sold in July. Our best estimate for 'real world' new unit registrations forecast for Italy in 2025 remains unchanged at around +3% to +5% by the year end.
Underlying market growth may be evidenced in the total PTW registration figures for the first seven months with an apparent decline of just -2.25% (237,644 units YTD) - only some 5,500 units down on the same period of 2024.
As usual the top selling units in Italy are scooters, with Honda Italia's SH 125, 350 and 150 series taking the top three spots (nearly 30,000 units YTD between them) followed by the X-ADV 750, the Piaggio Liberty 125 ABS, Kymco People S 125, Honda Italia's ADV 350, the Yamaha TMAX and the Voge SFIDA SR16.
The top-selling motorcycle in the first six months in Italy was (no surprise) the BMW R 1300 GS (2,802 units YTD), followed by the GS Adventure with 2,294 units sold.
Total Scooter sales were 139,961 units, which was up by 7.63% YTD - further probable proof of underlying market growth.
