IT may sound like a paradox to say so, but the recovery we are seeing in the motorcycle market in Europe this year is simultaneously strong and weak.
However, the recovery we are seeing in our market can only be described as "strong", as in most key European markets motorcycle sales growth is running well ahead of wider economic expectations in percentage terms.
This is a "good thing" of course, but it does suggest two possible concerns.
First, that we don't yet know the underlying state-of-health of the public's post-recession view of life on two wheels, as at this stage we are clearly benefitting from built up existing demand, rather than genuine industry expansion in demographic terms.
Second, it has to be accepted that while the wider economic recovery remains in the zero growth to 1.5 or 2.0 percent region, then some fragility remains, with the risk of those wider economic issues yet coming back to spoil the party.
In Germany market deterioration levelled off over the past two years, and there has been some small growth since - for the first six months of this year new motorcycle registrations are up by 10 percent, total PTW registrations up by 9 percent.
That is a good number, for sure, but it somewhat disguises what clearly is still a large degree of market volatility. Germany enjoyed a spectacularly good month in March, being up nearly 15 percent on what are usually its highest monthly volumes of the year.
In percentage terms January and February also saw spectacular growth in Germany, but on very low volumes, and June was up over 9 percent. So far this year it would appear that Germany has registered some 66,000 new motorcycles, compared to around 60,000 in 2013 and around 59,000 for the first six months of 2011 and 2012.
So, given that the last year before the full force of recessionary pressures hit the industry (2008) saw some 80,000 motorcycles sold in Germany, while there is still a giant hole in dealer new unit revenues there (everywhere!), we can at least now say that the market is following the classic stability followed by growth pattern - as anticipated by ACEM at their presentation at INTERMOT in October 2012.
Elsewhere the picture is less defined - as reported in this edition of International Dealer News the UK is doing well, and Spain continues to see rebound. Other major markets are either stable, modestly up (France and Italy for example), or have seen the rate of market decline slow down.
Clearly, if the wider economic performance in Europe is robust, then it is not yet filtering through into discretionary leisure spending on products such as motorcycles in all markets. However, define "robust" - "fragile" or "unproven”, still appear to be the operative words where macro-economics are concerned.
Although the UK economy appears to be "pulling up trees" as it powers past three percent annual growth forecasts (according to the IMF), it lags behind the overall global growth rate prediction. Worse, most Euro Zone markets (and the United States) are still forecast to see annual growth of only around the one to two percent mark, at best, and at those levels it doesn't take much in macro-economic, geo-political or regional/local terms to reverse trends.
The most recent data released by Brussels based motorcycle industry association ACEM shows cumulative PTW sales in the EU up by 3.5 percent (at 675,630 units) for the first six months of the year, with each month of the year so far having posted at least some kind of growth.
Moped/small cc unit sales for the first six months are off, at -8.5 percent for the first six months, but motorcycle sales, which deliver two thirds or more of market turnover in cash terms, are said to be up 8.8 percent for the first six months, at 493,378 units.
ACEM's data shows year-on-year motorcycles sales in key markets performing well. They have Spain at +20.8 percent; the UK at +13.1 percent; Germany at +9.9 percent; France at +6.9 percent; +4.4 percent in Italy.
So we have growth. Hurrah! Do we have increasing popularity in the overall concept of life on two wheels? Well, that is something that we won't know for years, or until some of the manufacturers are able to release demographic data telling us whether they are selling to returnees or new adopters.
My guess is that it is a mixed picture. Clearly there is low hanging residual, delayed spend demand to be picked up in the dealerships as wallet book strings loosen. Howeve,r common sense also dictates that some sales must be going to people, or whatever age group, who, for whatever reason, are drawn to a PTW message that has had considerable creativity and effort invested into it by the trade associations.
The recent and coming crop of new manufacturer products are also adding to the momentum by addressing the "un-biked" and young, especially young, urban social media generation consumers for whom the traditional values associated with motorcycling are outdated.
With the emphasis increasingly on ride character, the ownership experience and the individual, the market is becoming better at facing a future in which consumers will value style, convenience, economy and reliability.
International Night, October 1st, 18:30 hrs
With INTERMOT set to celebrate Cologne's 50th anniversary as the international motorcycle industry's primary business forum with a range of initiatives that look forward as much as they celebrate our past, expect some unexpected and imaginative new launches, pre-production prototypes and design concepts when it opens its doors to the trade on the dealer and industry preview day on Wednesday October 1st.
Oh, and don't forget - all IDN readers are invited to join us at the Business Centre between Halls 4 and 5 from 18:30 hrs on Wednesday 1st October for our now traditional and popular International Night industry reception.
