Regina CEO Paolo Garbagnati and Bergamaschi CEO Bruno Bergamaschi |
Thursday 31 October 2024
Regina
Comment by Editor, Robin Bradley
One of the missions we give ourselves when we visit EICMA for three days every November, is to try to gauge what financial analysts refer to as 'Market Sentiment'.
This can take many forms - P&A and G&A product offer trends, accessory and motorcycle pricing trends, vendor and dealer confidence (the two are closely linked, but they are not the same), OEM motorcycle trends, inventory, technology, materials and, of course, spending through the channels.
Whether or not the market is 'buying' is, ultimately, inextricably linked to two primary factors. Whether riders are inclined to be in the market for a new motorcycle (a new or pre-owned unit) and if they are also, or instead of a new ride, minded to stock up on new accessories - new gear or apparel and helmet, and maybe some new hard parts - whether components (performance or otherwise) or accessories to freshen up the look of a new machine, and these days that often includes creature comforts such as comms systems, phone holders, or whatever.
That may all be stating the 'blindingly obvious', but some 45 years of visiting motorcycle industry shows, primarily as a 'magazine guy' rather than a rider, dealer or importer, has shown me two things.
First, that whatever the superficial impression one gets of trends and present sentiment, look harder, drill deeper, and don't come to immediate conclusions. A considered assessment as the post-show weeks plays out often adds valuable nuance and context to what one saw and experienced. Secondly, don't always trust the data.
However, he or she who thinks they know it all, either haven't been asking the right questions or have been putting too much faith in data. At all times remember this - motorcycling is a fundamentally irrational and emotional undertaking.
nuance and context
Data is great, we all need it, increasingly so as we slide ever deeper into an Asimov-esque dystopia in which all evolution is code. As I get older, I become increasingly concerned that the closest we will ever get to any quasi-Buddhist concept of reincarnation is one in which we all come back as QR Codes!
As the data in this edition of IDN shows, we are not yet in a position to be able to draw dependable conclusions about the market's direction of travel based solely on the numbers. - which why 'Reading the Room' at EICMA and playing close attention to what happens in the following three months is so important this of all years.
The national trade association motorcycle registrations data that we have been able to publish in this edition draws a mixed picture.
For the first nine months of the year to September, Italy (at +7.17%/131,950 units) and Spain (at +7.18%/163,599 units) are both defying the odds if the prevailing, pre-EICMA market sentiment is anything to go by.
In both cases, those market performances are, in fact, the best first nine months seen in those countries in more than 15 years, and the detail in the data yields no discernible evidence of a positive or negative direction of travel in either direction, unless you happen to be an electric PTW of some kind. Parked in the dark, gathering dust in some cold damp warehouse, unloved and still awaiting customs clearance. I hope I don't come back as one of those!
In Germany, the news suggests the emergence of a new class of Quantum Data - simultaneously good and bad. The headline news is that YTD through September, new motorcycle registrations were 'only' +1.86% and six out of the nine months so far show registrations 'essentially flat'. At +6.22%, +5.47% and +4.92%, the other three months of 2024 would have been considered poor months in 2023 - a year in which all 12 months were in double figures, with the weakest being +13.74% and the best two months being +31.26% and +24.86%.
So, by any measure, 2024 has seen the prior strong (and I mean really strong) German market growth evaporate - putting the wider economic data that we are all seeing and hearing about for the German economy to convincing proof.
However, despite all that, Schrodinger's data for Germany also shows that at 114,736 units YTD, registrations in Germany look likely to close out 2024 as the second strongest market performance in at least 15 years.
Unlike the emotional attachment we all have to riding, all data is explainable. And therein lines its mono-dimensional weakness, in what Schrodinger described as a multiverse. In this case, you are not getting the full story if you only read stats. 'Reading the Room', aka nuance and context, tells you that while most dealers in Germany and the distributors they buy from all agree that the market there is down, they will all come up with different versions and definitions of 'down', and with different versions of what sectors of the market are weakest.
The primary problem will be that the strong growth in cash and capital resources generated since 2020 (2021 through 2023) has slowed down. But context tells us that it is the direction of travel that we need to see more evidence for. What happens in Germany in the first quarter of 2025 will be all important.
Everyone is becoming increasingly familiar with the financial news from the OEMs, but even that is not a uniform picture. Yes, KTM has stubbed its toe badly, Piaggio's multi-decade comeback crusade has stalled, BMW and Ducati are on the negative side of flat, but not yet headed for the 'hurt locker' that KTM finds itself in.
While much smaller, Triumph appears to be unable to do anything wrong at this time. It remains to be seen whether going to war on all fronts and finally trying to get 'techy' on models whose essential charm and appeal has been their relative simplicity dents their performance in the next 24 months.
Meanwhile, based on the available data for the first half of 2024, the Japanese manufacturers are basically doing okay - modestly, consistently and sustainably up, I'd say. No records being set, but no factories closing either. As to the American manufacturers though, don't ask. Let's not even go there! That data is dystopian. Harley-Davidson and Polaris (Indian) are in serious trouble, for all sorts of reasons.
Just one final thought though, and it concerns the Japanese brands. Exports of machines to Europe from their home factories (over 250 cc) were down by -49.92% in July and -36.78% in August; YTD they are down by -15.55%, and the trend is headed decidedly 'south'. Hmmm.
News Briefs
Consumers in America are said to be carrying a record level of credit card debt with defaults running at almost double the rate they were in the lead up to the 2007/08 Financial Crisis. Home mortgage and auto loan arrears and defaults are also running at levels in excess of 2007/08 on an inflation weighted basis (WSJ).
Italian premium brakes manufacturer Brembo reports H1 revenues of € 2,004.8m, up by +2.8% (+3.3% on a like-for-like exchange rate basis). EBITDA was € 351.4m (17.5%), EBIT was € 218.8m (10.9%).
BRP has won no less than six 2024 Red Dot design awards - for its Advex snowmobile helmet, Lynx Adventure electric snowmobile, Can-Am Outlander Pro and Can-Am Maverick R, and Sea-Doo Spark PWC. The Sea-Doo Spark has also been awarded an iF design award from over 10,000 submissions from around 70 countries.
After laying off some 70 workers in April, and parting company with its CFO in June, Montreal based electric snowmobile and PWC manufacturer Taiga Motors Corporation (TSX: TAIG) has filed for Bankruptcy Protection in the Superior Court of Québec. A formal sale and investment solicitation process was initiated prior to commencing the proceedings.
According to the Transport Ministry in Germany, bikers are doing fewer and fewer miles (km), with the average annual mileage of motorcyclists reaching an all-time low. Current statistics on "domestic mileage" say that the average motorcyclist covered 2,062 km last year (previous year: 2,087 km). Ten years ago, the average was 2,321 km.
Race legend Wayne Rainey is 'leading the charge' to restore domestic U.S. riders' access to the MotoGP premier class race grids of the world (mostly of Europe) by spearheading the establishment of a MotoAmerica Talent Cup to help the top homegrown riders succeed in the Red Bull Rookies Cup. "From once being where everybody wanted to come to learn and hone their track schools, it has now been nearly two decades since an American won the World Championship with the late, great Nicky Haydon in 2006."
Italian motorcycle registrations
Italy - record high still continues
The latest available data from the Italian motorcycle industry association (ANCMA) show new motorcycle registrations in Italy for the first nine months of 2024 up by a very healthy +7.17% at 131,950 units YTD, having been positive for six out of the nine months so far this year.
This has meant another post 2008 record for the Italian market for the first nine months of the year. Total PTW registrations were +5.64% YTD at an unprecedented 285,840 units for the YTD - also a post 2008 record for the first nine months of the year in Italy.
The top-selling motorcycle YTD remains the Benelli TRK 702/X (5,939 units sold) - placing it ahead of many traditionally (and still) strong selling scooter brands and models - such as the Honda X-ADV 750 and ADV 350, Piaggio Beverly 300 ABS and Yamaha TMAX and XMAX 300.
Indeed, the Benelli is also ahead of the BMW 1300 GS, which is the second bestselling motorcycle in Italy YTD with 4,161 units sold. Honda’s Africa Twin was third with 3,215 units sold.
Hondas SH 125, 150 and 350 were the top-sellers overall, followed by the KYMCO Agility 125 R16 in fourth and Piaggio Liberty 125 ABS in fifth. Maxi and ADV style scooters, and ADV style motorcycles, continue to dominate the market in Italy. Total scooter sales were 153,890 units (+4.36%) for the YTD.
Leatt
It began in 2004 with a groundbreaking protective product: the Leatt-Brace. Fast forward to today, and Leatt has become a top name in motocross, mountain biking and extreme motorsports protection.
Founder Dr. Chris Leatt says: "For the past 20 years, it's been incredibly rewarding to know our passion and products have revolved around saving lives." After witnessing the heartbreaking loss of a fellow motocross racer, Dr. Leatt, a neurosurgeon in training and a passionate rider, saw the urgent need for a neck brace to guard against common neck injuries.
Over the next three years, Dr. Leatt developed a rough prototype designed to work with a helmet to provide significant neck protection. This was the beginning of the Leatt brand and the award-winning Leatt-Brace "not only defined the category, but also revolutionised neck protection. As more riders embraced the brace, neck injuries declined.
A ten year independent study by Great Lakes EMS Inc. showed the effectiveness of wearing a neck brace: without one, neck injuries were 89% more likely, death from a cervical spinal injury was 69% more likely, non-fatal cervical spinal injuries were 75% more likely, and collarbone fractures were 45% more likely.
“These studies back up what we’ve seen in our testing - and validate the importance of riding with a neck brace,” Dr. Leatt states. “It's incredibly fulfilling and a huge point of pride to see my life’s work making such a real difference.”
Building on the success of the Leatt neck brace, the range has expanded to include helmets, body armour, knee braces, elbow guards, hydration systems and apparel. By 2025, there will be over 430 different Leatt products across three different line categories - offering "comprehensive head-to-toe protection for all kinds of riders: motocross, adventure moto riders and mountain bikers.
"Our commitment to ongoing research, development and testing happens at the Leatt Lab in Cape Town, South Africa. Here, products are meticulously designed and rigorously tested. The result is high-performance protective gear for both pros and casual riders. We collaborate directly with pro athletes, using their feedback in our R&D efforts to ensure every product is state-of-the-art.
“As a cross-country rider myself, I'm thrilled to see our endurance line grow. But look out for new product categories. We’re constantly innovating as technology advances. We’re exploring what’s needed in different sports, and we have some exciting new stuff coming.”
MIW Filters
MIW Filters
KSR Group
KSR picks up Segway, Access and QJ
This summer, Austria's KSR Group built on its survival of a near death bankruptcy protection filing by 'getting back on the horse' with a three-brand portfolio expansion.
Currently undergoing restructuring, KSR has taken over the import and distribution of Segway Powersports, Access Motor and QJ Motor - the objective being to strengthen its offer for dealers in the German-speaking market. The company is banking on there being high growth potential in the ATV, SSV and UTV sectors.
"Our three new brands stand for innovation, adventure and fun at a high but affordable level. With this variety of products, we can fulfil all customer wishes," say Christian and Michael Kirschenhofer, Managing Directors of the KSR Group.
In July, the KSR Group took over the Access Motor brand from Michael Leeb Trading GmbH for Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Hungary and is responsible for the entire aftersales area for all vehicles already delivered and sold to end customers.
Christian and Michael Kirschenhofer Managing Directors of the KSR Group |
The deal with Segway Powersports sees KSR taking over import and distribution for Germany and Austria from Herkules Motor GmbH & Co. KG.
KSR is also now the new general importer of QJ Motor motorcycles and quads for the German and Austrian markets - taking over from Hans Leeb GmbH. Within the next 18 months, a full range of up to 25 models of motorcycles, scooters and quads is to be built up together.
In the motorcycle segment, the focus is on the adventure range from 550 to 700 cc. In 2025, the aim is to quickly expand to 1,000 cc. In the four-wheel segment, the company is starting with two models with 600 and 1,000 cc - ATV, SSV and UTV from 300 to 1,000 cc are to follow the portfolio in the next season.