As the international motorcycle industry continues to surf the waves of the pandemic, the fear of wipe-out is never far away. Regardless of how many waves we are destined to endure, when it comes to how they impact the motorcycle industry, we have to accept that sooner or later one of them will have rocks in it.
At present, based on reports from readers and customers, and the latest available data from ACEM and the individual national motorcycle industry trade associations around Europe, signs are that motorcycle industry new unit sales remain surprisingly robust. We may be dented and bruised, but it could have been oh so worse!
Indeed, in many markets sales so far in 2020 are up well over the corresponding period of 2019 - showing actual growth.
Is it sustainable? To be brutally honest, I don't think any of us really know if anything is sustainable anymore and I still reckon that those who think they have the answers are not understanding the questions.
In theory, there is now enough evidence to suggest that the powerful 'two-wheels mean environmentally and time and cost-saving commuting convenience' message may finally be getting through.
It is ironic that mass transit systems are now being seen as a potential part of the problem and that the perfect social distancing of a two-wheel commute now has an upper hand. As Antonio Perlot, the Secretary General of ACEM, said recently though, it is all about balance.
He has called on transport policy makers and regulators to ensure that PTWs are included in a balanced diet of future-facing policy solutions. Indeed, the argument that needs to be made is that PTWs should be seen as an integral part of the transport mix, not just part of a temporary pandemic fix. ACEM and the national trade associations are well aware of this and are making every effort to grasp this opportunity to make the 'two wheels good' message stick permanently.
If the current market bounce is down to commuter and wider consumer group response to the health emergency, then great, but we need local, regional and national transport authorities to redouble their preparedness and efforts to deliver on the EU's pledge to ensure that motorcycles, scooters and mopeds are indeed protected and promoted as part of future-facing transport initiatives.
What we will have to wait and see, however, is whether the present market buoyancy does sustain once everyone is vaccinated and herd immunity to COVID-19 established to see if the motorcycle industry's products now also have herd immunity - to see if PTW use is elevated to another level and can kick-on from what we are seeing at present.
It could go either way, of course. Once a sufficient percentage of the population is protected from the coronavirus, it may be that a lot of potential customers (new and returnees, youth and older) heave a collective sigh of relief and reach for their rail and bus passes again without fear.
Right across Europe one is hearing opinions from both sides of the debate, indicating that it could go either way. If anything, the "everything will be different in the land of new normal" tribe of optimists appear to outnumber the "not so much, we'll all revert to type" brigade of realists.
However, having been around this block so often before, having seen so many false dawns for the motorcycle market since the late 1980s, I guess I am a tad less convinced so far.
Yes, there are promising signs, but show me the lines of vast millions of enthusiastic new customers beating down the doors of their local motorcycle store two or three years from now, and then I would be prepared to become a true believer. Sadly, life isn't like that, and Genies never do go back into bottles.
There was a time 60, 70 years ago when it appeared that manufacturers could sell all the motorcycles they could make (or so it seems to those who weren't there), a time when the unit numbers were eye-watering and the prices of new and used machines just as (relatively) high as they are now.
But the issues that the motorcycle industry has been grappling with for a decade now, issues of demographics, youth entry and competing calls on time and money, have not gone away. Those issues never will go away, they can only get tougher for markets like ours - especially as the end of the road for the internal combustion engine looms ever larger.
Electric motorcycles, scooters and mopeds will and do already have their own very specific appeal, but as yet there is precious little evidence to suggest that the huge demand that conventional ICE units generate for service and performance items, for personalisation and multiple gear and apparel combinations in a well-stocked home garage will have any parallel.
PTWs may cease to be a lifestyle consumer discretionary product altogether and become part instead of just another part of the energy industry, the consumer electronics market and transport infrastructure provision instead.
Maybe it is being locked down again that is making me gloomy in the face of such excellent statistical evidence for a bright future. Maybe it is fear of being disappointed. Either way, I have always believed that if something looks too good to be true, then it almost certainly is.
On the other hand, it is true that, especially under the circumstances, our industry is doing well - at least in new registration numbers, and we are seeing pre-owned unit prices harden in most European markets.
Indeed, as I said last edition, inventory appears to be the primary foot on our hosepipe and in that context the extra time to sell Euro 4 models is great news. Rather than needing to wait two or three years, actually, I still believe that we need to get into the start of the spring selling season to see what a longer term picture looks like.
If sales do sustain deep into 2021, as, hopefully, the pandemic eases, then in all likelihood there is a long-term benefit to our industry in play and , personally, despite my apparent doubts, I do think that 2021 will be a good year - and that it should then give us a foundation to build on for a few years more, even if the eventual impact of the ICE bans means the future of the motorcycle and parts, accessory and G&A market as we know it, is, ultimately, time limited.
“integral part of the transport mix”
