The latest data released by the Japanese motorcycle industry trade association (JAMA) shows 'Big Four' exports of all machines over 250cc to Europe up by just under +2 percent for the first quarter of 2015 compared to the first three months last year (54,389 units).
For March exports to Europe were also around +2 percent (19,556 units) compared to March 2014.
The picture is a little better for overall PTW exports to Europe from Japan when shipments of smaller displacement machines are included (March +3.3 percent/20,205 units; YTD +3.1 percent/57,000 units), but overall the message now emerging for 2015 is a clear one.
Compared to the significant growth seen last year (+20.7 percent/157,462 250+cc units for the full year compared to 2013) the Japanese manufacturers and their dealers in Europe are not set for a repeat of last year's rebound from the 11.48 percent decline they endured in 2013, -5.63 percent decline in 2012, and -22.66 percent decline seen in 2011.
Not unless there is a large scale and rapid increase in shipments, and not unless their dealers are able to find buyers rather than see unsold inventory build up. Taken with the uncertainty surrounding overall European motorcycle market demand so far this year, and the at-best levelling out of the "Stage Three" macro economic dip seen in the past nine months, some industry observers are now saying that they are yet to be convinced that the recovery seen in the 18 months to December 2014 is "robust" or "sustainable".
The picture is worse for Japanese brand motorcycle dealers in the United States. Imports of Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki and Kawasaki units there (250cc+) were down by -31 percent in January, -13 percent in February, and a massive agenda-shaping -35 percent in March (a mere 7,505 units for the biggest sales month of the year).
For the year-to-date in the United States imports of Japanese made motorcycles of +250cc are nearly -25 percent at 28,754 units (38,204 for the first quarter of 2013, 37,327 for Q1 2013, 38,095 for Q1 2012).
In terms of the past decade, first quarter Japanese exports to the United States peaked at 128,116 units in 2007; at 147,053 units in Europe in 2007.
