The MCIA, the UK motorcycle industry trade association, had taken the unusual step of releasing a forecast (April 27) for the 2020 Powered Two-Wheeler (PTW) market in the United Kingdom, based on what it sees as a likely response to loosening of restrictions as the country emerges from the worst of the Covid-19 outbreak.
"After an extended period of market growth, which saw PTWs buck the downward trend established by other retail sectors and post year-on-year growth for both 2019 and 2018, MCIA forecasts a fall in sales for 2020, entirely due to the coronavirus pandemic.
"January and February 2020 both posted higher registration figures than the corresponding months of 2019, a trend that carried on into the early days of March. However, the arrival of the lockdown all but stopped PTW sales and March overall was down -21% on 2019, with Quarter 1 down -12.2%.
"Assuming an ease to the lockdown measures by mid-May and a return to something approaching normality by the start of Q3, MCIA predicts a Q2 fall of around -58%, with the third quarter regaining some ground, to show an increase of +7.7% versus 2019.
"With Q4 predicted to return a modest rise on last year, MCIA sees the full year down -18.2% against last year with 87,897 units registered (there were 107,408 units registered in 2019).
"Although it is anticipated that all segments of the PTW market will be affected, small capacity commuter and delivery PTWs are expected to fare better than larger, leisure orientated products."
The MCIA went on to say that these figures assume a 12-month postponement of the end of series regulations for Euro 4 vehicles. MCIA, ACEM and all other European industry associations have requested a delay to the end of series due to the existing impacts on the market caused by Covid-19.
