After the remarkable year that the motorcycle industry had in 2020, in new model registration terms, this year has not started well. It is understandable. In pandemic impact terms, we appear to be back in March and April 2020 territory - and at the time of writing, Wave III is washing across the land, making it highly likely that we haven't seen the worst of it yet.
What was remarkable about last year was that not only had the market losses of the spring been largely recovered by the end of the year, but most of the major markets actually recorded growth, ridiculously high growth in some cases - and that was the clue!
In an outbreak of Euro 3/4 Crossover Syndrome revisited, the December 31st deadline for regulation-busting pre-registrations of otherwise unsellable Euro 4 inventory (in advance of final Euro 5 implementation) has, again, distorted the registration statistics.
Apparent sales in the final quarter of 2020 were artificially boosted, robbing the first quarter of 2021 (at least) of many of the new registrations that would otherwise have been a guide as to just well (or not) the early 2021 market was doing.
Add to that the again deepening effects of the coronavirus pandemic, as national governments and international organisations continue to be blinded by the glare while failing to be guided by the science, and it is hard to draw any other conclusion than that the market for new PTWs in Europe is in decline again.
Throughout the second half of 2020 I repeatedly said (in print, in emails and by phone, Zoom and smoke signals) that nobody should get carried away, either way, and that we would know the answer to the ultimate question about the fate of the market in 2021 by March, but not until March.
Writing this piece on March 31st, it is hard to look at the prospects for market weather for the coming year (or two) through any lens other than the one marked "cloud and rain".
The questions I had been raising in 2020 were whether or not we were fooling ourselves to think that, all of a sudden, two-wheel transport and leisure activity was an idea whose time had come, and, even if the growth did sustain to the end of 2020 (which it did), would it sustain into 2021 (which it has not).
“cloud and rain?”
There were other negative issues at play this past winter too, such as bad weather, postponed shows and simple lack of consumer access to showrooms. Regardless of the siren voices that are predicting the end of trade fairs as we knew them, anybody who doesn't realise that fundamentally we still need them is just plain wrong.
Inventory issues, and the logistics chain problems that have had much to do with furnished whole good availability, have also now started to affect registrations too. In most markets, many dealers were already short of motorcycles through the second half of 2020, but the problem has to be worsening now. Alternatively, those showrooms that do have nice shiny new models awaiting the lustful caress of admiring consumers will be racking up losses as flooring finance plans transition from opportunity to overhead.
The new ways of selling (online, drop-off test rides, home delivery, lease/purchase etc.) have all helped, and will continue to do so, but at the end of the day, the motorcycle industry (commuting and leisure riding alike) is a visceral experience and there is no substitute for letting the customer experience the goods before spending the money.
All things considered, we are sat in the middle of a perfect storm of uncertainty. That said, in the context of the Third Wave, the distorted registration statistics are the least of our problems, of course.
However, it is worth reminding ourselves what ACEM said about its 2020 data for the 'Big Five' markets in Europe (Italy, France, Germany, Spain and the UK).
"In aggregate, the largest European markets for motorcycles and mopeds recovered after spring, reaching an overall increase of +4% compared to 2019 data, although with different results across the countries. Some, such as the Netherlands (+30.3%) and Germany (+27%), registered substantial increases, while others, such as Italy (-5.3%) and Spain (-8.8%), still lag behind 2019 figures."
For the first time in years, Germany exceeded Italy in registration terms for the year!
ACEM acknowledged the problems with its data, correctly stating that "generally speaking, the market progressively recovered in the second half of the year, although positive figures in late 2020 are also partly linked to pre-registrations performed by importers and dealers due to the end of validity of Euro 4 approvals (31 December 2020), for production falling outside end of series provisions.
"Looking at full-year 2020 results, a total of 883,102 motorcycles were registered in 2020 in the five largest European markets. This represents a marginal increase of +1% compared to 2019 numbers."
The largest motorcycle markets in Europe in 2020 were: Germany (220,304 units), Italy (218,027 units) and France (191,231 units).
The largest European moped markets (i.e. Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain) rose from 246,345 units in 2019 to 279,841 in 2020. This represents an increase of 13.6% on a year-on-year basis. The largest markets for mopeds in Europe were France (98,592 units), the Netherlands (84,732 units) and Germany (35,010 units).
What we now wait to find out, is whether or not ACEM Secretary General Antonio Perlot was right when he said that "to a large extent market recovery was due to the renewed attractiveness and convenience of powered two-wheelers for urban and peri-urban commuting within a sanitary context in which public transportation has not been deemed a safe option by many citizens."
If that proves to be a sustainable shift in transport culture, then great. But will it prove to be so? The European (EU) bike park continues to be in the region of 36 million units, which means that around 10% of the adult population in Europe ride a PTW of some kind at least some of the time, even if it is only occasionally riding a motorcycle or scooter they simply have access to.
That is not insubstantial, so are we on the threshold of a brave new world in which PTWs (ICE, E, Hybrid or both/all three) really move centre stage? Do not underestimate the importance of the work being done by the Connected Motorcycle Consortium (IDN # 159) and by the newly established Swappable Battery Consortium.
