Following my "Sad Story" piece about motorcycle registration statistics in the last edition, it is a case of 'déjà vu all over again' with this month's market numbers (as Yogi Berra put it!).
We have had to drop our usually comprehensive and, we know, much valued statistical reports from around Europe's markets as the wild variations being seen in the data gathering again render the numbers unreliable - with any conclusions drawn from the trend data likely to be misleading.
The reasons, again, are the anomalies arising from the rush to pre-register Euro 4 inventory as the final, extended, deadline for registration of unsold Euro 4 inventory loomed at a time of increasing inventory shortages.
Any unsold Euro 4 units that did not meet the strict timescale criteria set by the EU for the end of series derogation that was approved in advance of Euro 5 final implementation would have, in effect, been unsellable as of January 1st.
As we start to lap the registrations data of March 2020 and beyond, the wild variations triggered simply make any meaningful analysis impossible.
The trade associations continue (mostly) to release monthly registrations information and those can be seen in the online editions of MotoWEEK, the IDN newsletter/blog. The service will be restored to our print edition as soon as the data permits!
an informed guess
In the meantime, the headline news, the one single, simple fact that we can rely on is that, given the circumstances, the industry is doing well. Indeed, the primary challenge at present is inventory shortage - triggered by a perfect storm of continuing reverberations from last year's factory closures, high demand, materials shortages and other supply chain challenges and price inflation pressures, shipping costs and logistical issues such as container hoarding and freight scheduling!
It has to be remembered though, that much of the current demand is from delayed buying and consumers eying the advantages of PTWs as a commuting solution of choice for ongoing self-isolation reasons.
The ACEM statistics for 2020 theoretically showed the market as being +1.1% for total PTW registrations in Europe's 'Big-5 markets. Net of the pre-registered Euro 4 machines (at least 50,000 total PTW units in the 'Big-5' markets), the real market performance is more likely to be around -3% or -4%. That is purely an informed guesstimate though, because the way the data is now being harvested and reported makes precision impossible. If it is anywhere near accurate, then I think we'd all agree that, given what has been happening, then it is a very good result.
We do have access to data for some of the major markets, and within the tolerances of the data gathering and reporting variables, it looks like we are seeing genuine growth over 2020 - but not yet of sufficient numbers to catch up with 2019 in all markets; Italy is the honourable exception.
In total PTW terms, the Italian data to the end of May 2021 (from ANCMA) shows the Italian market at 127,324 units (up +87.7% compared to 2020), and for Spain the figure through May is 69,854 units (up +39.07%), also through May.
For Germany, the data shows growth of +6.31% compared to 2020 at 64,549 units for January through April, and for the UK, total PTW registrations are put at +16.95%, also through April (29,558 units).
Clearly the Italian figure is a COVID catch-up drive aberration, and the other percentages also reflect lapping the lockdown sales results from mid-March onwards last year, so can't be assumed to yet represent 'boom time' for a dealer community that is having to look for new inventory down the back of the sofa. At peak selling time too!
In three out of those four cases, the data for the four or five month periods reported so far for 2021 still lags the corresponding periods in 2019 and in most cases, seriously so.
Another insight comes from the data for Japanese made PTWs being exported to Europe from the domestic Honda, Yamaha, Kawasaki and Suzuki factories. For the period to April 2021, total PTW exports to Europe are said to have been up by +12.58% at 82,130 units for the first four months of 2021.
That compares to 72,995 units for the same period in 2020 and 73,509 for 2019. Clearly, the inventory coming into Europe is Euro 5 compliant and represents a modest production bounce in data that has been headed south in an apparent death spiral ever since 2004.
All this is playing out against a background of ferocious aftermarket vendor consolidation. The major distributors (especially) are seeking to add to critical mass.
Breda, Netherlands based Parts Distribution Group (PDG - the Hoco Parts and DC Afam owner) has had a voracious appetite, having been especially acquisitive in the UK. Its latest deal saw the acquisition of Dutch custom parts giant Motorcycle Storehouse.
Meanwhile, with the backing of the family-controlled Kontich, Belgium based Alcopa concern, BIHR - the Bartenheim, France based distribution business (founded in 1975 by Cyrille Bihr) - has also been busy in the UK. The Moto Direct/RST apparel owner recently added off-road strength in depth, buying Race FX and announced that it had acquired 100% of the shares in Hamburg based Paaschburg & Wunderlich just as this edition was closing for press.
The market sentiment is that this is a process that has not finished yet. Further acquisitions will be confirmed in the next 24 to 36 months, as distributors, manufacturers and brand owners look to strengthen their access to international markets and diversify product ranges.
The underlying equity that many such deals are focused on acquiring at this time is access to dealer networks and logistics capacity. Brick and mortar showroom floor real estate and online mail order platform storefronts are the reserve currency of the 21st century as we head towards our glorious electric future.
In which connection, do go back and read our February/March report about the work of the Connected Motorcycle Consortium if you missed it, and check out our 'Tipping Point' news feature by Ben Purvis - and the report about new Honda President Toshihiro Mibe's first speech - both in this edition.
