When everything changes, nothing changes
When the pandemic first collapsed motorcycle sales in March, April and May 2020, there was much talk about nothing ever being the same again.
The BMW and KTM decisions to no longer exhibit at the major shows (in corporate terms) sent shockwaves through the international exhibitor community. Once it was clear that EICMA and other shows would not be staged in 2020, the widespread assumption was that the industry was witnessing a moment of seismic strategic change.
There were those who said that the end for 'conventional' trade fairs had already been approaching for all markets and that the pandemic was only going to hasten a trend that was already embedded. Then there were also those who drew the same parallel to the viability of the motorcycle market itself.
Then something else happened instead. Motorcycles (PTWs) suddenly became part of the solution rather than the problem, and guess what - 18 months on and the factories can't make or ship enough inventory fast enough (for a range of well-rehearsed reasons). Suddenly new model registrations were on the rise, vaccinations were starting to edge society towards being able to co-exist with Covid, and here we are now, planning to head to Milan in six weeks' time for the 78th iteration of a show that was first staged in 1914.
The Trade Fair concept is no more flawed now than it was 20 years ago. The visceral appeal of "feeling the metal" is no more flawed now than it was before it was suggested that clicks would entirely replace "door swings".
All progress can inform and then live in perfect harmony with tradition. Yes, change is constant, change is all around us (and we need it to be), but nobody ever managed to make all their appointments in two or three days at EICMA anyway, and there will still be way too many business opportunities than any sane person can embrace - even if the show is "just" five halls rather than eight (with enough open spaces to have always allowed it to be at least one hall smaller than it was anyway).
We underestimate the motorcycle and wider powersports industry at our peril, and we certainly are not about to read it and the institutions that it has spawned (such as EICMA) the last rights.
I was taken recently by the sharp focus thrown onto the strength of our industry by a new report from Oxford Economics that ACEM is pointing to on its website (www.acem.eu). It is a research project that updates our understanding of the scale of the industry we are a part of.
The research highlights the economic and mobility benefits of two-wheelers in Europe and shows that the motorcycle sector in the EU and the UK supports about 389,000 jobs - through different activities, including the manufacturing of vehicles, P&A, G&A, PPE and other motorcycle-related activities.
Based on a market analysis in 2019, the study also found that the motorcycle sector contributed about € 21.4bn of GDP across Europe and that every € 1 of GDP created directly by motorcycle businesses supported a further € 1.80 of GDP in other industries.
In terms of tax revenue, the motorcycle sector and related activities generated about € 16.6bn, making motorcycling an important contributor to public finances, particularly in large markets like Germany, France, Italy, UK and Spain.
Europe-based motorcycle companies export goods worth about € 2.1bn per year with key export markets including the US, Switzerland, Australia and Japan.
Furthermore, and get ready for this factoid, the study also examined the "additional benefits" offered by motorcycles to their users, and to the environment. A scenario analysis suggests that if 5% of those who commute by car across Europe (5.3 million commuters) switched to motorcycles, the aggregate time savings would be 21.2 million days per annum - worth € 3.3bn to these users.
Motorcycles were also found to offer substantial cost savings due to lower fuel use and operating costs. On average, the cost of commuting by motorcycle (€ 545) was nearly one-third of what it would cost to use a car (€ 1,435) across a year.
Much of the findings came as no surprise and were simply updates on what have become "received wisdoms" over the past decade or more - but it is worth thinking about those "received wisdoms" again in the context of a 21st century which will change habits, assumptions and preconceptions.
For example, the research confirmed that motorcycles have a smaller environmental footprint than four-wheelers, fair enough. But did you realise that the average powered two-wheeler in the European vehicle fleet emits about 99 g CO2/km - less than half of the 210 g CO2/km emitted by the average car (petrol and diesel)? Interestingly, motorcycles up to 250 cc were found to emit on average 62 g CO2/km. About 62% of Europe’s two-wheelers fall into this category.
The study also examined the economic importance of motorcycle-related events, i.e. motorcycle sports, motorcycle trade fairs and events organised by OEMs.
In total, these activities contributed about € 2.1bn to Europe’s GDP and supported about 38,400 jobs and € 1.2bn in tax payments. A large part of that impact happened in local communities that greatly benefitted from international tourists attending motorcycle-related events.
The study found that about five million spectators attended major motorcycle sporting events in 2019, with MotoGP attracting about 1.8 million spectators to its 12 European races in that season. Furthermore, about 2.5 million people attended motorcycle trade fairs and manufacturers' promotional events the same year.
Hello BMW and KTM - are you entirely comfortable that your 2020 decision to leave the aisles of EICMA, INTERMOT and other shows to your rivals was as smart as you thought?
